A mere eight weeks ago when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
