Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
