A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
